400 and 76000

Three years ago I was wondering in a post about what it might take for society to take notice of peak oil and climate change. I thought maybe a “shock” of some sort, especially associated with physical phenomena, might do the trick. In that post I looked at three events that I thought would happen in 2015 or 2016. Let’s see how we’re doing.

1. 400 ppm CO2. Check.

2. Peak of global oil production by 2015. Appears likely. (We can’t know for sure until many years have passed.)

3. Near-zero sea ice. Didn’t happen, though it still seems likely in the next few years.

But in reflecting on it a bit more, it seems that none of these will actually affect the life of the average person, at least not directly, and as a result I was a bit naive to think that a physical event such as one of these, despite their obscurity and indirect impact on daily life, would be a wake up call for the public.

But I can say one thing for sure — those who are watching these indicators are wide awake.

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